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ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

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LOW 96W

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME HOURLY SURFACE WIND AND RAINRATE WITH VALUE

CREDIT: VENTUSKY

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DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

PHILIPPINES WEATHER FORECAST

PHILIPPINES WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

5 DAYS METRO MANILA DATA FORECAST (based on GEFS Ensemble model)    
DATE AND TIME Rainfall (mm)   Temperature (°C)   Windspeed (km/hr)   Direction   MSLP (mb)    
12/14/2017 14:00 1.08   27.2   40.44   ENE   1009.7    
12/14/2017 17:00 0   24.4   40.50   ENE   1009.5    
12/14/2017 20:00 0   23.1   42.97   ENE   1011    
12/14/2017 23:00 0   22.3   38.95   NE   1011.2    
12/15/2017 2:00 0   21   36.55   NE   1010.4    
12/15/2017 5:00 0   20.5   35.13   NE   1010.3    
12/15/2017 8:00 0   23.2   31.36   NE   1011.4    
12/15/2017 11:00 0   27.8   26.79   NE   1011.1    
12/15/2017 14:00 0   29.1   20.43   NE   1008.8    
12/15/2017 17:00 0   24.7   19.14   E   1009    
12/15/2017 20:00 0   21.7   19.20   E   1011    
12/15/2017 23:00 0   21.1   15.50   NNE   1011.4    
12/16/2017 2:00 0.54   21   20.37   N   1009.6    
12/16/2017 5:00 7.35   20.2   22.90   WNW   1009.6    
12/16/2017 8:00 14.5   19.7   33.15   N   1011.6    
12/16/2017 11:00 6.36   19.2   33.95   NNW   1012.2    
12/16/2017 14:00 1.76   19.1   35.37   N   1010.1    
12/16/2017 17:00 0.02   19.4   34.88   NNE   1010.3    
12/16/2017 20:00 0   20.1   36.24   NNE   1011.7    
12/16/2017 23:00 0.27   20.3   40.31   N   1011.4    
12/17/2017 2:00 0.27   20.3   45.31   N   1010    
12/17/2017 5:00 0   20.5   48.21   N   1009.7    
12/17/2017 8:00 1.08   22.2   54.20   NNE   1011.6    
12/17/2017 11:00 1.62   24   57.47   NE   1012.2    
12/17/2017 14:00 0.54   23.8   56.55   ENE   1009.9    
12/17/2017 17:00 1.08   22.9   59.20   ENE   1010.1    
12/17/2017 20:00 0   22.1   64.14   ENE   1012.6    
12/17/2017 23:00 0   22.2   66.43   NE   1013    
12/18/2017 2:00 0   22   63.59   NE   1011.7    
12/18/2017 5:00 0   22.5   61.18   ENE   1011.7    
12/18/2017 8:00 0   23.3   56.73   ENE   1013.6    
12/18/2017 11:00 0   25.4   53.83   ENE   1013.8    
12/18/2017 14:00 0   25.4   54.57   ENE   1011.5    
12/18/2017 17:00 0   23.7   50.62   ENE   1011.6    
12/18/2017 20:00 1.08   22   48.09   ENE   1014    
12/18/2017 23:00 4.77   21.5   44.02   NE   1013.8    
12/19/2017 2:00 6.71   21   38.89   NE   1011.9    
12/19/2017 5:00 13.47   20.8   37.16   N   1011.9    
12/19/2017 8:00 24.18   20.7   40.99   NNE   1014    
12/19/2017 11:00 13.43   21.9   38.95   NE   1014.2    
12/19/2017 14:00 5.43   22.8   37.72   NNE   1011.5    
                       
AVERAGE 2.5741   22.34   41.51   ESE   1011.36    
DRIZZLE-LIGHT                    
LIGHT-MODERATE                    
MODERATE-HEAVY                    
HEAVY-VERY HEAVY                    
VERY HEAVY-INTENSE                    
INTENSE-TORRENTIAL                    
                       
ENVIROMENTAL FACTORS    
          DATA       DESCRIPTIONS
850mb VORTICITY(×10-6/s)   175   INTENSE  
AVER. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (in kt)   35   STRONG  
AVER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (in kt)   50   SEVERE UPDRAFT  
AVER. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (in kt)   30   STRONG INCREASING PRESSURE
AVER. TROPICAL PREC. WATER (MM)   80   VERY MOIST        
AVER. COLDER THAN -40°C   75   DEEP
AVER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)   1010.50   LOW
AVER. WEEKLY SST INDEX ( EASTERN EQUATORAL)   -0.732   LA-NINA THRESHOLD
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION   0.873   WEAK WESTERN PACIFIC
                       

DECEMBER 14, 2017 1000PM (GOOD FOR 12HRS)

SYNOPSIS: APPROACHING #UrdujaPH, SURGE OF NE MONSOON

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

For Philippines weather, Bicol region, Eastern and Northern Luzon including eastern CALABARZON AND MIMAROPA, expected to be mostly cloudy with scattered rainshower becoming more frequent over Bicol region, while Metro manila and the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy with isolated rainshower. Winds will be at 35-55km/hr NE over Northern, Eastern Luzon and Bicol, coastal waters will be rough and dangerous to small type of seacraft, while 15-28km/hr NE-NNE over the rest of Luzon and coastal waters will be safe to all types of seacraft. Eastern and Central Visayas expected to have moderate to at times heavy rains becoming at times intense over Samar, while the rest will be cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Winds will be at 35-60km/hr NW-W over Eastern Visayas, coastal waters will be rough to very rough and dangerous to small and medium type of seacraft, while over the rest of Visayas, 10-20km/hr NNW-WNW and coastal waters will be safe to all type of seacraft except during thunderstorms. CARAGA and Northern Mindanao expected to have moderate to at times heavy rains with winds of 30-46km/hr W-WSW over CARAGA, coastal waters will be rough and dangerous to small type of seacraft, while the rest of Mindanao expected to be cloudy with scattered thunderstorms with winds of 10-15km/hr W-WSW, coastal waters will be moderate and safe to all type of seacraft.

Sea surface temperature over Eastern Equatorial Pacific continues to lower at La-nina threshold (-0.732 centigrade), as MJO now at weaker amplitude at Western Pacific.

FORECAST MODELS/TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

As of 0600UTC,
Weak 97W invest continues it slow organization while its LLCC somewhat relocated far to East, along near equator while convection remains building up along the area. 97W currently under the weak steering environment due to NER over West, STR over North. High SST and OHC, low and decreasing VWS expected to provide ample support for its tropical cyclogenesis. Overall, due to very favorable environment, 97W has a low chance to become a signifant tropical cyclone for the next 24hrs but expected to increase its probability once started gaining latitude in response over the weakening NER over west.

TC Kai-tak (#UrdujaPH) struggle to intensify as it encountering hostile environment for the past 12hrs. Increased vertical windshear displaced most of its coldest -90 to -100 celsius cloudtops convection over at western semi-cirle, exposing the weak with multiple vortices LLCC. Recent strong updrafts remains over for the past 6-8hrs producing numerous severe to intense rain along the area of Samar, however, at the south, moderate low level outflow (sinking air) was observed. Kai-tak currently remains under weak steering influence mainly due to competing steering force over STR over North, Northeast and South causing it to continuesly move erratically. For the next 24-48hrs, the said competing forces will cause Kai-tak to wobble and move back and forth and even becomes quasi stationary over near Samar. Kai-tak is forecast to intensify but only a little to 35-45kt maximum despite of warm SST, and high OHC as hostile upper level environment remains at place (moderate to strong VWS) including proximity over land. For 24-48hrs, large scale of uncertainty over its track remains and therefore have difficulty tracking the system to where exactly the system go.
PSWS #2: Northen Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran (as of 8PM pagasa bulletin)
PSWS #1: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate lncluding Burias and Ticao Islands, and Romblon, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu including Bantayan Island, Capiz, Aklan, and Northern Iloilo (as of 8PM pagasa bulletin)

BELOW ARE 10 DAY FORECAST AND SELECTED PHILIPPINE CITIES 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST



METRO MANILA HIMAWARI THERMAL IR IMAGERY

NEW PAGASA RADAR SITE (CLICK HERE) https://v2.meteopilipinas.gov.ph/




10MIN CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (FOR THUNDERSTORM CLOUD)

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY



10 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST


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PHILIPPINE CHART AND REALTIME WIND


SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WIND

7 DAYS GFS WIND FORECAST


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7 DAYS GFS WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST


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RELATIVE VORTICITY (UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS)

Vorticity is a measure of curvature in atmospheric flow. A positive value indicates counter clockwise motion in the northern hemisphere and lockwise motion in the southern hemisphere. A positive vorticity environment is conducive to storm development.


WESTERN PACIFIC ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER




DISCLAIMER: These are based on forecast models and realtime charts and imageries and not as an official update. Please don't use this as an official forecast unless official agencies issued warnings or updates. All informations and updates are supported by different data gathered from different agencies which well-analyzed by the author. All imageries are real time and only forecast is subject to changes by author.

CREDITS: weather-forecast.com, Naval Research Laboratory, NOAA, WEATHER ONLINE, PAGASA-DOST, CNN WEATHER, CIMSS

Layout and Discussions Prepared by: Jermaine Christopher Gaines (© 2016 All rights reserved)

RAPID FIRE STATION

REAL TIME WEATHER NEAR MY PLACE



AYALA ALABANG

TWO FRAME RAINRATE IMAGERY


DMSP SSM/IS RAINRATE

AMSU RAINRATE

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

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