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ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

CLICK IMAGERIES TO REDIRECT ON COMPLETE IMAGERIES AND INFORMATIONS (Imageries will be seen after Philippines imagery below)

ONE-W/AURING

LOW 95S

LOW 97W

LOW 90B

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME 3 HOURS UPDATED SURFACE WIND AND 3HRS RAIN. CLICK EARTH TO CHANGE VIEW. CLICK MAP TO KNOW VALUE/DATA
CREDIT: EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.

DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

PHILIPPINE WEATHER FORECAST

PHILIPPINES WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

METRO MANILA FORECAST (based on GEFS Ensemble model)
Date [TIME] [UTC] Rainfall (mm)   Temperature (°C)   Windspeed (km/hr)   MSLP (mb)
10.01.2017 00 0   26.7   14.04   1011
10.01.2017 06 11.7   25.1   13.32   1010.1
10.01.2017 12 2.8   25.3   18.36   1011.4
10.01.2017 18 0.2   25.3   21.24   1011.1
11.01.2017 00 0   26.4   22.68   1012.8
11.01.2017 06 0.4   26.7   25.56   1010.3
11.01.2017 12 0   25.8   23.4   1012.1
11.01.2017 18 0.1   25.4   15.12   1011.1
12.01.2017 00 0   26.2   19.44   1012
12.01.2017 06 0   28.9   21.6   1009.1
12.01.2017 12 0   25.5   12.24   1011.1
12.01.2017 18 0   24.1   6.12   1009.5
13.01.2017 00 0   25.2   5.76   1010.6
13.01.2017 06 0   27.9   12.6   1007.5
13.01.2017 12 0.3   25.4   7.2   1009.8
13.01.2017 18 0   24.5   5.76   1008.5
14.01.2017 00 0   25.7   6.84   1010.1
14.01.2017 06 0.1   29.7   15.84   1008.1
14.01.2017 12 0   26.5   16.56   1010.8
14.01.2017 18 0   26   18   1010.2
15.01.2017 00 0   26.8   14.76   1012.4
               
AVERAGE 0.7429   26.15   15.07   1010.46
LIGHT/DRIZZLE            
MODERATE            
HEAVY            
VERY HEAVY            
INTENSE            
TORRENTIAL            

JANUARY 10, 2016 1130AM (GOOD FOR 12HRS)

SYNOPSIS: Active Low pressure area (ex-#AuringPH) Visayas, NE winflow over Luzon

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION

850mb VORTICITY(×10-6/s): +25 to +50 (WEAK) Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR(in kt): 10-50kt ESE-SSW, WEAK-VERY STRONG (DECREASING RAPIDLY for the past 24hrs).

LOW LEVEL INFLOW (CONVERGENCE): 5-10kt LOW LEVEL INFLOW over Bicol, Visayas and Northern Mindanao (weak-fair ascending air)

UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (DIVERGENCE): 5-20kt UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW over over Luzon and Visayas (positive feedback/pressure stable)

TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (in mm tropical moisture): +75mm over Southern Luzon, Visayas while dry air remains over Northern Luzon and Southern Mindanao

COLDER THAN -40°C (in % for DEEP CONVECTION): 60-100 over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao (deep-very deep convection)

AVERAGE WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION (SURFACE): 20-25kt NE over Extreme Northern Luzon, 10-15kt NE over rest of Luzon and Visayas while 5kt Changeable over Mindanao

AVERAGE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SURFACE IN MB): 1007-1017mb

24HRS RAINFALL FORECAST: +50mm of rain over most of CALABARZON, Bicol, NCR, MIMAROPA Eastern and Western Visayas; +15mm over Eastern part of Cagayan Valley, rest of Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula.

AVERAGE WEEKLY SST INDEX (EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC): -0.026°C (RISING, +0.040°C)

MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AMPLITUDE: +0.785 [(NON-WEAK MJO) PHASE 5 MARITIME CONTINENT going UP by 0.162]

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

1. Tropical Disturbance 01W (#AuringPH) continue to transverse over Sulu sea approximately about 200km WNW of Zamboanga Peninsula
. 2. Most of the country expected to have some rainshowers and/or thunderstorms becoming more pronounce over Southern and Eastern Luzon, Bicol, Visayas and NW Mindanao due to enhance NE windflow combined with 01W.
3. Coastal waters over Extreme Northern Luzon will be rough and dangerous to small type of sea craft while light to moderate seas is expected over the rest of the country.

FORECAST MODELS/TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

As of 1800Z,
1. Remnant of 01W continues to move towards Sulu sea and expected to cross Southern Palawan tomorrow.
2. Vertical windshear remains strong over the area inhibiting convective formation along the LLCC.
3. Models still suggest for possible re-intensification while over West Philippines sea.
4. In the meantime, another tropical disturbance code 97W develop off Micronesia. Models shows this system a next to watch as a potential for next tropical cyclogenesis in the coming days as it tracks towards Philippines.

BELOW ARE PHILIPPINE DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION, 10 DAY FORECAST AND SELECTED PHILIPPINE CITIES 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST



METRO MANILA STATION
BAGUIO STATION
APARRI STATION
SUBIC
TAGAYTAY
BALER STATION
VIRAC STATION
CEBU STATION
HINATUAN STATION
SOUTH COTABATO





10MIN CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (FOR THUNDERSTORM CLOUD)

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY



10 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

192HRS

204HRS

216HRS

228HRS

240HRS

PHILIPPINE CHART AND REALTIME WIND


SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WIND

10 DAYS WIND FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

192HRS

204HRS

216HRS

228HRS

240HRS

RELATIVE VORTICITY (UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS)

Vorticity is a measure of curvature in atmospheric flow. A positive value indicates counter clockwise motion in the northern hemisphere and lockwise motion in the southern hemisphere. A positive vorticity environment is conducive to storm development.


WESTERN PACIFIC ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER




DISCLAIMER: These are based on forecast models and realtime charts and imageries and not as an official update. Please don't use this as an official forecast unless official agencies issued warnings or updates. All informations and updates are supported by different data gathered from different agencies which well-analyzed by the author. All imageries are real time and only forecast is subject to changes by author.

CREDITS: weather-forecast.com, Naval Research Laboratory, NOAA, WEATHER ONLINE, PAGASA-DOST, CNN WEATHER, CIMSS

Layout and Discussions Prepared by: Jermaine Christopher Gaines (© 2016 All rights reserved)

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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

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